In Werewolves, if you're the village, you should lynch when you can, even on D2

Leucosticte

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There were three games where the village lynched without intel: wlf-001 (mislynch, werewolves won), wlf-009 (mislynch, vampire won), and wlf-017 (correct lynch, village won). What these seem to have in common was that there was no "meta" to ensure that everyone made the same lynch choices. Therefore, we don't know what the statistics would be if there were a strong meta in place (e.g. always lynch the first person in the list).

wlf-001: Zerg=1 (Wolverine), Fetch=1 (Magneto), Grumpy=3 (MattDamon, Tintin, Thor), Prime=1 (Kirk), MattDamon=1 (Prime), Kirk=1 (Gandalf), DelBoy=4 (Deadpool, Tarn, Grumpy, Aeris), Tintin=1 (Fetch)

DelBoy (mislynched) was a vanilla. Of the 4 voting for DelBoy, 1 was wolf (Aeris, the BH, who did not have any info about him, and did not change their vote to him until 18:46:51; prior to that, they were voting for Gandalf, another villager). Aeris's vote was decisive in choosing DelBoy, but the runner-up, Grumpy, was also a Villager.

wlf-009: Snuffles=1 (Fart), BuffSummer=1 (Gearhead), EvilMorty=2 (Squanchy, Unity), BirdPerson=1 (BuffSummer), Beth=1 (AlienBeth), Gearhead=4 (Snuffles, TinyRick, Beth, Morty), TinyRick=1 (Tammy), Tammy=1 (BirdPerson), AbradolfLincler=1 (Hamurai), Unity=2 (EvilMorty, Jerry), Jerry=1 (AbradolfLincler), Morty=1 (Krombopulous)

Gearhead (mislynched) was a sleepwalker. Of the 4 voting for Gearhead, 1 was vampire (Snuffles), the rest were villager. Snuffles's vote was decisive in choosing Gearhead instead of, e.g., EvilMorty (Stalker) or Unity (Shapeshifter). BirdPerson (village) had cited Gearhead's "lowest activity".

wlf-017: Ned=1 (Zero), Bass=1 (Barrel), Harlequin=1 (Bass), Lock=1 (Devil), Creature=1 (Lock), SaxPlayer=1 (DrFinklestein), Devil=1 (Ethan), BatKid=1 (Ned), Behemoth=1 (BatKid), Jack=2 (SaxPlayer, Behemoth), Barrel=1 (Creature)

Jack (correctly lynched) was a bloodletter. Of the 2 voting for Jack, only 1, Behemoth, was wolfpack (Direwolf). In this game, Behemoth proposed early on, "I propose that we do everything in our power to destroy the curse that has plagued many villages before us." "The curse of the "asv"" "Anyone who exhibits symptoms of this curse should be terminated with extreme prejudice."

Behemoth, whose vote for Jack was decisive, said that night to his fellow wolves, "OH SHIT" "I said I wouldn't forget" "xD" "Well, there goes the bloodletter" "FML." "Sorry everyone, that one is entirely on me :P"

There were at least two games where they mislynched with intel (wlf-016, werewolves won; wlf-041, werewolves won):

wlf-016: Jhin=1 (Graves), Graves=4 (Kassadin, Janna, Jhin, Brand), Kassadin=1 (Teemo), Janna=1 (Varus), Thresh=1 (Viktor), Ezreal=1 (Amumu)

Graves (mislynched) was the Seer. Of the 4 voting against him, 2 (Jhin the Shapeshifter and Brand the Shapeshifter) were wolfpack, and their votes were decisive. Jhin claimed "alright I'm seer, got Janna as a villager"; Graves made a counterclaim that Jhin was wolfpack.

In this game, Janna, the militia, had said, "I will do my utmost to get the first person to place a true "asv" killed today." "But the important thing being that anyone who places a vote should be able to find a reason for placing that vote on a certain person." "The "asv" thing is a cancer and needs to be destroyed." "So, we're not even an hour into the day and I would say we already have a better-than-nothing reason to vote three people: Kassadin, for deliberately undermining the "no-asv" movement; Amumu for continuing to discuss an irrelevant matter rather than anything constructive to the game; Jhin for enabling and seemingly encouraging the irrelevant discussion." (Kassadin was Villager, Amumu was Protector, and Jhin was Shapeshifter.)

wlf-041: Ishvalan=1 (Fury), Roy=1 (AlexLouis), Shezka=1 (LingYao), Buccaneer=2 (Alphonse, Shezka), Kimblee=1 (Riza), Alphonse=1 (Buccaneer), Pride=1 (Ishvalan), Gluttony=2 (Nina, Zampano), LingYao=1 (Envy), Nina=4 (LanFan, Fu, Roy, Gluttony)

Nina (mislynched) was the Seer. Of the 4 voting for her, 2 (Fu, Alphawolf and Gluttony, BH, who had no info on her) were wolf, and their votes were decisive. Nina said, "I am the Seer, I probably messed up and Imma die, but ok. I checked LingYao last night, don't reveal yourself bruuuh" and Gluttony said, "I CC Ninas seer claim. I checked Alfonse last night and he turned up village."
 
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